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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.