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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."